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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data suggesting that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, though analysts believe PVV is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which previously achieved a shock top result and established a four-party all-conservative coalition that lasted barely a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

However, the far-right party's support has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer amid a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

Following a campaign dominated by issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, projected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with some facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the vote earns a party one MP. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant fragmentation means that no one party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – typically composed of several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from government. However, opponents and experts argue that first place does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations may require several months, analysts suggest that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is likely to be a broad-based alliance led by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected soon after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.