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During the 2016 campaign for the US presidency, Viktor Orbán stood out as the exclusive EU chief to endorse the Republican candidate. This support was hardly surprising, given the Hungarian leader's adoption of contentious ideas including population replacement concept and the crackdowns on media freedom. Commentators have noted that Mr Orbán essentially pioneered Trump's base, with one-time strategist Steve Bannon lauding Orbán as the "Trump before Trump".

Campaign Assistance Ahead of Hungary's Polls

In recent days, with pivotal polls in Hungary merely approaching in six months, the US president reciprocated with support. While Orbán seeks a fifth consecutive term governing a nation he calls an illiberal state, his ruling party lags in surveys. A meeting to Washington resulted in more than a few signed Maga baseball caps; it secured far more significant pre-election gifts.

Special Treatment and Fiscal Safeguards

Even though previously instructing European states on the imperative to eliminate all resource supplies from Russia, and warning of penalties against countries continuing to buy Russian oil, the US president agreed to provide a unique waiver for Hungary – the biggest user in the EU of Russian crude. As Orbán stated, the US government also pledged to provide a “financial shield” to Budapest should it faces any later issues, given that Brussels is still blocking billions in EU funding to Hungary because of violations of legal standards.

The details of this agreement are unclear. Yet the US president illustrated his readiness to help out like-minded partners when the United States granted a $20bn emergency credit line to Javier Milei, the South American leader. While Orbán was unable to arrange a Trump trip to Budapest to the Hungarian capital, the discussions still turned out to be a productive session.

EU Concerns and Geopolitical Stakes

Within EU circles, Mr Trump’s intervention will have further underlined the geopolitical stakes of the coming election, prior to which the centrist challenger, Péter Magyar, enjoys a solid advantage in the polls. European leaders are accustomed not to look for principled consistency from the Trump administration, and are familiar with the Trump's moves to diminish the bloc. Yet the waiver for Hungary – obtained in exchange for an agreement to buy American natural gas and nuclear power – flagrantly undermines EU aspirations to eliminate imports of Russian energy by the year 2027.

• Since 2022, the largest EU buyers of Russian oil, the Hungarian and Slovak nations, have contributed substantial funds to the Russian military campaign.
• Simultaneously, the Hungarian government has consistently deployed the threat of its veto to impede moves in Ukraine's bid to join the EU.
• While Europe works to create a coordinated approach for backing Ukraine, and bolstering its position in any future peace negotiations, Mr Orbán’s Putin-friendly presence at the international forums is still a key barrier.

Rival's Approach

Mr Magyar has refrained from pledging a drastic turnaround on the war in Ukraine, and focused his campaigning on internal matters, while highlighting the importance for Hungary to start acting as a productive EU partner. After enduring persistent provocations, EU officials can only hold out hope. The Hungarian leader's apathy to fundamental European principles, including the protection of minority groups and the independence of civil society institutions, has remained a deeply troubling issue for the European Union. His continued obstructionism on the Ukraine issue risks undermining its long-term safety.